Amercian cotton enters the oversold rhythm,buyers purchase more long-term shipments

According to the feedback of some international cotton merchants and cotton import enterprises, due to the sharp rise of ICE cotton futures since the middle of March, the number of contracts cancelled by some sellers has risen significantly due to delayed delivery and negotiated termination. In addition, despite the strong export performance of American cotton in 2021/22, the shipment has been seriously delayed and the performance period has been repeatedly postponed, and some Chinese buyers who “put equal rice in the pot” can only passively default, The orders cancelled by Chinese buyers were soon re signed and sold by cotton mills and traders in India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries. In 2021/22, American cotton exports remained strong and entered the oversold rhythm.

According to statistics, as of April 14, 2022, the cumulative contracted volume of American cotton in 2021/22 was 3.259 million tons, 48000 tons more than the annual export volume predicted by USDA, and the sales progress reached 101.5%. American cotton exporters may use American cotton, Brazilian cotton or Australian cotton in 2020/21 instead of delivery, and buyers need to purchase according to their own needs.

In addition, since the contracted export data of American cotton in 2021/22 and 2022/23 are relatively high (the shipping date in 2022/23 is mainly in December/January), the shipment and delivery rate of American cotton in 2022 are relatively low; In addition, due to many factors such as the continuous pace of global commodity “shopping” in the United States, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the tight container / shipping space, buyers from Türkiye, Vietnam, Pakistan and other countries focused on inquiry and procurement of more long-term American cotton shipments to ensure the safety of cotton supply in 2022 / 23. Therefore, in recent trading days, the disc price difference between ice’s main July contract and December contract has gradually narrowed to 167 cents / pound, The price difference between the main contract and the contract in March 2023 also fell from 22-23 cents/pound to about 20 cents/pound. 

Some cotton related enterprises and institutions believe that with the growth rate of the actual sown area of American cotton in 2022 significantly lower than expected, the Indian government cancels the 11% tariff on cotton imports this year, and so far, the concern about the drought in the southwestern cotton region/western cotton region of the United States is still serious, and other positive support, the “upside down” range of ICE in the far and near months will continue to weaken

Post time: Sep-21-2022